Ever talked yourself out of taking action? Ever thought through the consequences if you changed your approach? Have you seen others freeze in fear of making a decision because they can’t see what the consequences may be? That’s affective forecasting at play.
Affective forecasting is the prediction of one’s affect (emotional state) in the future, typically upon reflection of maintaining the status quo or changing our behaviour. It’s a theoretical process that influences preferences, decisions, and behaviour all before even an action is taken! Put simply it’s those little voices in your head… fighting for your attention.
Where do I see this most in Safety personnel? Typically when they interact with someone with a large power imbalance (normally) the highest in field line manager. The effect is compounded when there is a history of a failed attempts to influence and the likelihood of an outcome will either be rejection or dismissal. This is the ‘I’ve tried before’ ‘Been there done that’ ‘They aren’t interested’ symptom when someone from outside of the relationship looks to intervene. We even can push our own affective forecasting onto others – especially those influenced by ourselves!
Our affective forecasting can become a downward spiral when it turns into a long-term negative, self-fulfilling prophecy. It’s like the elephant and the rope analogy. We forget that it’s in our head and the shackles holding us back are our own. Unfortunately, it’s a general rule that people are better at coping with a stressful situation by internalising rather than exerting influence.
So how can you be a positive deviance and overcome those little voices in your head, maybe even turn them to your favour?
For me, it’s committing to witness and take no action when the self-talk in my head is not constructive. It’s about acknowledging that it’s natural to have these thoughts and the nervous (or negative) energy that can be turned into enthusiasm and passion. By acknowledging that these thoughts are there and it’s part of our brain (freeze, fight or flight) there to protect us from harm and not to be suppressed. This may seem strange yet the overcoming of these thoughts and reframing to constructive motivation represents a huge ability to build self-confidence and overcome your fears. It has a knock on and leverage effect knowing that if you do it once, you can do it again and again, for larger opportunities.
Jamie Foxx always asks his kids “What is on the other side of fear? He commits to not banishing the dragons but using them to consciously move the past and achieve everything he wants.
He understands, without the dragons, we have no heroes!
How can you use affective forecasting to your advantage tomorrow?
Reframe my Safety Brain 